1. 3 months ago

    In case you had not realised, it’s marathon season – and Nike Air Huarache Femme I’m not just talking about the one on the telly – there are at least 30 listed in the Fetch Everyone race finder this month. And, while many runners are Nike Air Max 90 Essential Donne happy just to complete this challenging distance, there are plenty who are cramming their heads with calculations, extrapolations and dreams of PB glory.

    Unless you are the sort of person who turns up to a marathon in tennis shoes and cut-off jeans, you have probably got a good idea of the sort of pace you are able to maintain over longer distances. But, until you have gone the whole way, it’s Nike Air Max 95 Femme hard to know how well you’ll finish. Long runs, fuelling strategies and careful preparation all help, but you’ll find out plenty about yourself in that final six miles.

    This article came about because I was always bemused by the predictions that I got from pretty much every online “calculate your marathon time” tool. I ran my best half Adidas Stan Smith Donne marathon in 1hr 46m, and most calculators suggest a corresponding marathon time of 3hrs 40m. My best attempt is 4hrs 15m. It was a wonderful experience, but I’ve always wondered where I lost the extra half an hour. I don’t remember stopping for a haircut.

    Can Nike's two-hour marathon quest learn from Roger Bannister/My training could have been a bit better – but it made me wonder whether the race time predictors are giving us a realistic view of Nike Air Max Command Femme what we’ll achieve. How many runners set out to achieve those predictions, and end up having an awful race? Ultimately, predictions help set our expectations and inform our plans – so it makes sense to ensure they are good ones.The Fetch database holds over 30,000 marathon and 57,000 half marathon performances – enough to expect to find some sort of relationship between them. There were red herrings of course – such as folks who have run a great time at a flat half, then slogged Nike Air Presto Hombre their way around the Beachy Head marathon. But by concentrating on runners who had completed at least five half marathons and five full marathons, I found a core of about 1,000 runners who (you would hope) would have recorded a representative time at both distances. They range in ability from five-minute-milers to 12-minute-milers.
    In 1977, Peter Riegel published an article in the US edition of Runner’s World that introduced a formula for estimating race times – and it is this formula that is most commonly used in dozens of race calculators all over the internet. You can feed one race time into it, and get a prediction for how fast you would run at a different distance. It is awesome because it can apply to pretty much any distance between one mile and a marathon – and in most cases, it gives a decent estimate. Here it is:

 

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